Profiting from war, conflict of interest deals and other shady stuff

Over the past few weeks some highly improbable trades have seen the light of day. And what we mean by that are trades, that are so perfectly timed, that mere chance is a stretch to explain them.

Additionally, more and more examples of conflict-of-interest dealings where high up politicians and their families profit from information that is not publicly known yet.

A quick search gives some food for thought (or to get sick from) in the table below.

This information is based on publicly available information and analysis, is provided for informational purposes only, and does not constitute legal advice or an allegation of wrongdoing; no representations are made as to the completeness or accuracy of the information.

#	Case	Type	Who Benefited	What Happened	What is Verified	What is NOT Verified	Evidence Strength	Interpretation
1	Pre-announcement oil trade (23 Mar)	Market timing trade	Unknown traders, potentially Trump inner circle	~$500M in oil futures traded ~15 min before Trump delayed Iran strike; oil dropped 10–15%	Trade size, timing, direction, and price reaction	Identity of traders; source of information	High	Strongest anomaly; timing suggests advance knowledge or highly informed anticipation
2	~$500M oil trade 15mins before “pause”	Market timing trade	White House inner circle	Claims of large, coordinated trades around war developments	Only ~$500M oil trade confirmed	$2B equity figure	High	Someone close to power may have monetized nonpublic war information
3	Polymarket bets	Prediction market betting	Anonymous wallets	~$70K bet on ceasefire → ~$800K payout; accounts created shortly before events; also correct prior strike bet	Bet timing, wallet behavior, payouts	Identity of bettors; link to insiders	Medium–High	Pattern consistent with informed event betting using anonymity
4	Trump-family drone investments	Strategic positioning	Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr.; XTEND, Powerus, Unusual Machines	Investments in drone companies linked to Pentagon demand during war buildup	Investments, roles, and defense-sector relevance	Preferential contracts; use of non-public info	Medium	Monetizing policy direction rather than specific events
5	1789 Capital / defense ecosystem	Capital allocation	Donald Trump Jr.; portfolio firms (e.g. Vulcan Elements)	Investments aligned with defense/strategic sectors; large Pentagon loan (~$600M+) to linked firm	Investment activity and loan existence	Preferential access; direct war-event linkage	Medium	Structural advantage via political proximity and sector positioning
6	Barron Trump oil trade	Viral claim	Barron Trump	Alleged $30M oil futures position before war	Nothing credible	Trade existence entirely	Low	No reliable evidence

Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, The Guardian, Business Insider, Financial Times, Le Monde, El País, Snopes, Yahoo News, De Volkskrant, ChatGPT, Absolut Vision