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What does the US Presidential Election mean for the VIX?

The volatility index, VIX, rises ~25% on average from July to November during election years. This is primary due to investors hedging positions with options due to uncertainty around the election. This also coincided with the S&P 500 average 3-5% pullback a month before the election. After the election, volatility drops by 18% on average from November to December. This has historically triggered a 9.5% market rally from the election day till the end of the year.




Source: Kobeissi Letter

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