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Investment insights

We are four months into the year. Time to take stock (pun intended). A look-back, look-now and look ahead in a few pictures.

How solid are ETF's?

ETFs were killed off by the merciless market at double the rate of last year. Year to date, 62 exchange-traded funds have been liquidated or delisted, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than double the number seen in that same span last year, when just 26 had closed by mid-April. And even more funds are on the chopping block.

Source: Bloomberg

More closures are still to come as a number of issuers have disclosed that they’ll be culling their ETF suites. Invesco said it will close more than 20 of its funds as part of a broader “refinement” to the asset manager’s offerings. Simplify announced on April 13 that it would liquidate four funds.

Retail investors

The average retail investor portfolio is down by about 27% since November 2021. And significantly underperforming the S&P500. Ouch!

Source: Vandatrack research, Yahoo Finance

US investors increase investments in foreign equities

Investors have pulled $34bn from US equities funds so far this year, according to data provider EPFR. Europe, in contrast, has seen $10bn of inflows. China accounted for almost half of the $34bn inflows into emerging markets more broadly, according to EPFR. Nevertheless, the US retains comfortably the biggest stock market in the world. The market capitalisation of the S&P 500 stands at $34tn, compared with just under €10tn on the Euro Stoxx 600.

Source: FT, EPFR

Market vs. Economy – a general view

Please note that this is not investment advice!

Economic and market cycles move in tandem, with the market usually looking 6-12 months ahead. How can we use, if at all, the current phase of the economy to build our portfolio?


S&P500 net short positions

A warning flashing? S&P500 net short positions reach the highest level in more than a decade. More than during the pandemic…

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC

S&P500 predictions I

Where do you see the S&P500 at year-end? At the time of writing the S&P500 stands at around 4130.

Source: JP Morgan’s Strategic Research

S&P500 predictions II

Every time the S&P 500 had a 20%+ decline or more in Midterm Election year (2022), one year later the market rallied ~30% or more.

Source: Strategas Securities LLC

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