Tariffs and the supreme court

The Supreme Court just handed Trump his first major legal defeat. His response? "We have alternatives." And “So I’m allowed to destroy the country, but I can’t charge them a little fee. I could give them a little two cent fee, but I cannot charge under any circumstances. I cannot charge them anything.”

In a 6-3 ruling, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs — the most significant judicial rebuke of his presidency.

The court's message was clear: IEEPA does not give the President the power to impose tariffs. Full stop.

But here's what happened next — within hours, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff using a different law: the Trade Act of 1974.

This is the part most people are missing:

→ The Supreme Court closed one door

→ The White House immediately opened another

→ Markets barely flinched (S&P 500 actually rose 0.4%)

Why? Because sophisticated investors largely saw this coming. The administration had time to plan.

The real story here isn't the legal defeat. It's the signal it sends:

• Trade policy uncertainty isn't going away.

• The US ended 2025 with effective tariff rates above 10% — the highest since World War II. And billions in collected tariff revenue hangs in legal limbo, with the court silent on whether refunds are owed.

• For businesses, supply chains, and trading partners worldwide — the turbulence continues.

The rules of global trade are being rewritten in real time.

On top of that, it is estimated that there is a 67% chance the Supreme Court orders a "tariff refund" this year. That means that the US potentially faces $150+ billion in refunds. 

Which countries benefit from this verdict? Below is an overview.

As Apple Tree Fund, we will keep a close watch on any developments in this area.

Sources: FT, Charles-Henry Monchau, Kalshi, Johannes Fritz, Global Trade Alert