The oil shock that is still coming

Oil prices have risen sharply since the attack on Iran was launched by Israel and the US. That is logical, but at levels of $107 for Brent and $101 for WTI, it appears to be more a case of “controlled panic.” Brent has been trading above $100 per barrel for over two weeks but has only briefly moved above $110.

A true panic spike has not yet occurred. Energy analysts say this may only be a matter of time, as the direct impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has so far remained limited.

There are still oil inventories available, and the last ships that were able to pass through the Strait are still arriving at their destinations. “That phase is now coming to an end,” says Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Chief Oil Analyst at Rystad Energy.

why oil price rises have been so orderly so far,

and why that is about to change.. https://t.co/TAIdkwIkdQ 

— Dario Perkins (@darioperkins) March 30, 2026

JP Morgan summarized this dynamic in a clear chart: when does the supply shock from the blockade reach different regions? In Europe, flows are expected to stall on April 10. 

This explains why several analysts fear that we have not yet seen the peak in oil prices—and may not for some time.

Government leaders are already preparing for serious supply and pricing issues. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is cautiously revisiting COVID-era scenarios: 

GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ WARNED THAT IF THE WAR IN IRAN ESCALATES,

IT COULD HAVE A SERIOUS IMPACT ON GERMANY AND EUROPE, SIMILAR TO COVID.

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 30, 2026

Today, G7 ministers are meeting to discuss energy prices. According to the Japanese participant, interventions in the oil market are on the table in those discussions.

JAPAN'S INDUSTRY MINISTER AKAZAWA ANNOUNCES G7

WILL TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO STABILIZE ENERGY MARKETS.

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 30, 2026

Sources: iex.nl, Dario Perkins, JP Morgan, First Squawk